Potential Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand Under Different Scenarios in the Gansu Section of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

The degradation of ecosystem services (ES) poses a significant obstacle to regional sustainable development. Land-use change is widely recognized as a pivotal factor driving the spatio-temporal dynamics of ES supply and demand. However, the future impact of land-use changes on supply–demand risks remains largely unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a study in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin. By integrating Cellular Automata (CA) and an enhanced Markov model within the GeoSOS-FLUS framework, we dynamically simulated land-use changes under three scenarios—the Normal Development Scenario (NDS), Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), and Rapid Socio-economic Development Scenario (RDS)—spanning from 2020 to 2050. Furthermore, we employed the InVEST model to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of supply, demand, supply-to-demand ratios, and supply–demand risks for water provision, carbon storage, and soil conservation under all scenarios. Firstly, all scenarios project an increase in built-up land, primarily from unused land, shrubland, grassland, and cropland. Forest land and water bodies remain stable. Secondly, water provision increases, but demand grows faster, leading to supply–demand imbalances, with high-risk areas in the north, central, and east. Soil conservation shows balanced supply and demand with high-risk areas in the north. Carbon storage remains stable, with high-risk areas in the central and east regions. Thirdly, high-risk areas for water provision increase under all scenarios, particularly under the Rapid Socio-economic Development scenario.