Generative AI Readiness in Public Higher Education: Assessing Digital Teaching Competence in Paraguay Through Machine Learning Models

Abstract

The rapid expansion of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) is transforming higher education systems, particularly public institutions seeking to advance toward smart governance models and digital transformation. In this context, digital teaching competence emerges as a strategic factor for the effective, ethical, and pedagogically sound adoption of these technologies. This study assesses the level of digital competence among public higher education faculty in Paraguay and examines its predictive capacity regarding the adoption of GAI tools using machine learning models. A nationwide quantitative study was conducted with a sample of 800 faculty members from public universities across Paraguay. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire based on international digital competence frameworks, incorporating additional variables such as attitudes toward GAI, technological experience, institutional infrastructure, and perceived organizational support. Data analysis involved the application of machine learning techniques, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting, to identify the variables with the strongest predictive power regarding faculty readiness and willingness to integrate GAI into teaching practices. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, F1-scores, and the AUC-ROC. The findings identify key predictors of technological readiness and structural gaps within Paraguay’s public higher education system. This research provides empirical evidence from Latin America on the factors influencing GAI adoption in public sector educational contexts and contributes to the design of educational policies aimed at fostering smart universities and digitally sustainable academic ecosystems.