Drought episodes in the Czech Republic and their potential effects in agriculture

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology for assessment of drought episodes and their potential effects on winter and spring cereal crops in the Czech Republic (in the text referred to as Czechia). Historical climate and crop yields data for the period of 47 years (1961-2007) have been integrated into an agrometeorological database. The drought episodes were determined by three methods: according to the values of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), percentage of long-term precipitations (r), and on the basis of the Ped drought index (S i). Consequently, the combined SPI, S i, and r indices have been used as tools in identification of the severity, frequency, and extent of drought episodes. Additionally, the paper also presents the S i drought index and its potential use for real-time monitoring of spatial extension and severity of droughts in Czechia. The drought risk to crops was analyzed by identifying the relationships between the fluctuation of crop yields and drought index (S i) based on the multiple regression analysis with stepwise selection. In general, models explain that a high percentage of the variability of the yield is due to drought (more than 45% of yield variance).