Statistical modeling of temperature operating modes of heating furnaces for hot strip mills

Abstract

The article provides a method of mathematical modeling to improve temperature operating modes of heating furnaces for hot strip mills. The object of the research is the thermal operation of a continuous walking beam furnace for heating slabs before rolling. The subject of the research is statistical modeling of metal heating in furnaces of this type. The creation of a statistical model consists of factors selection, construction of regression model, correlation analysis and assessment of the variables significance, adjustment of factors and obtaining regression equations. The main part of the research refers to a statistical model based on a comprehensive analysis. This model is based on the results of 15 automated industrial experiments on Russian heating furnaces of hot strip mills and describes the heating process in walking-beam furnace with acceptable accuracy. The adaptation of the statistical model and error calculation has been carried out. The article contains graphs comparing real temperatures and temperatures calculated on the basis of mathematical and statistical models for one of the experiments. The main conclusions are formulated based on the results of the research done. For the first time in metallurgical practice, a statistical model has been developed that describes the process of metal heating in a five-zone continuous furnace with eight heating subzones. Since the regression function is defined, interpreted and justified, and the assessment of the accuracy of the regression analysis meets the requirements, it can be assumed that the model and predicted values have sufficient reliability.