Eco-hydrological modelling of channel network dynamics - Part 2: Application to metapopulation dynamics

Abstract

Temporal variations in the configuration of the flowing portion of stream networks are observed in the large majority of rivers worldwide. However, the ecological implications of river network expansions/retractions remain poorly understood, owing to the lack of computationally efficient modelling tools conceived for the long-term simulation of river network dynamics. Here, we couple a stochastic approach for the simulation of channel network expansion and retraction (described in a companion paper) with a dynamic version of a stochastic occupancy metapopulation model. The coupled eco-hydrological model is used to analyse the impact of pulsing river networks on species persistence under different hydroclimatic scenarios. Our results unveil the existence of a climate-dependent detrimental effect of network dynamics on species spread and persistence. This effect is enhanced by dry climates, where flashy expansions and retractions of the flowing channels induce metapopulation extinction. Survival probabilities are particularly reduced in settings where the spatial heterogeneity of network connectivity is pronounced. The analysis indicates that accounting for the temporal variability of the flowing river network and its connectivity is a fundamental prerequisite for analysing in-stream metapopulation dynamics.