In the wind: Invasive species travel along predictable atmospheric pathways

Abstract

Invasive species such as insects, pathogens, and weeds reaching new environments by traveling with the wind, represent unquantified and difficult-to-manage biosecurity threats to human, animal, and plant health in managed and natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of these invasion events, their complexity is reflected by the lack of tools to predict them. Here, we provide the first known evidence showing that the long-distance aerial dispersal of invasive insects and wildfire smoke, a potential carrier of invasive species, is driven by atmospheric pathways known as Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS). An aerobiological modeling system combining LCS modeling with species biology and atmospheric survival has the potential to transform the understanding and prediction of atmospheric invasions. The proposed modeling system run in forecast or hindcast modes can inform high-risk invasion events and invasion source locations, making it possible to locate them early, improving the chances of eradication success.