Channel morphology and prediction of mid-line channel migration in the reach of Ganga River using GIS and ARIMA modeling during 1975–2020

Abstract

The dynamic nature of meandering poses several challenges in a river. The river Ganga shows severe bank erosion in many of its stretches which creates insecurity to the habitats. In the present study, channel morphology and lateral mid-line migration for 1975 to 2020 in 5 years intervals have been studied. The prediction of lateral mid-line migration from 2020 to 2050 by using multi-temporal Landsat satellite images was made by using the ARIMA model. The river reach was divided into 8 bends and 48 cross-sections were identified. The channel length was observed as 224.35 km in 1975 which reduces to 199.96 km in 2020. A decreasing trend was observed for the mean of channel length and meander ratio, and an increasing trend was noted in the mean of sinuosity ratio and tortuosity ratio. A total of 11 cross-sections showed the rightward shifting and 36 cross-sections showed the leftward shifting. Observed and predicted values showed a good R2 value of 0.90 and 0.89 at CS-24 and CS-25, respectively. The results may be used for planning and management of various river training work and understanding the river system dynamics.