Common distress and reorganization patterns by sector and country for SMEs in six European countries using PDFR

Abstract

This study contributes to identifying common distress patterns in financial indicators by sector and country in Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as well as ex-post signals of reorganization success. We use PDFR that provides a distance-to-failure measure and allows us to track the behavior of different features of the firm proxied by accounting ratios. Our results show that indicators of financial structure, followed by working capital, profitability on assets, margin over sales and cash flow to assets, are the most discriminant variables of failed SMEs across all sectors and countries analyzed. By contrast, during reorganization, return on assets and its components are the main initial drivers of recovery, whereas the financial structure factors show a progressive but slow recovery. Boosting and Z-scores are used for robustness.