MESMER-RCM: a probabilistic climate emulator for regional warming projections

Abstract

Regional Climate Model (RCM) emulators enable rapid and computationally efficient RCM projections given Global Climate Model (GCM) inputs, complementing dynamical downscaling by approximating physical representations with statistical models. However, while existing RCM emulators perform well in deterministic emulations, they do not sample internal RCM variability and remain computationally expensive. Here, we present MESMER-RCM, a probabilistic RCM emulator designed for spatially resolved annual 2 m temperature. MESMER-RCM is a generative model that enables both data-efficient learning and interpretability. It can generate large ensembles of synthetic, yet physically plausible, RCM realizations, capturing the internal RCM variability at a fraction of the computational cost. This work offers a fast and reliable RCM emulation framework, supporting finer-scale what-if analyses of regional climate responses and informing local adaptation and mitigation strategies.