Oil extraction, grievances, and conflict: evidence from Niger Delta and South Sudan

Abstract

This article explores the grievances prevalent in oil-rich regions, with a focus on the Niger Delta and South Sudan. We hypothesize that the combination of oil extraction and the systematic exclusion of certain ethnic groups from national politics, coupled with inequitable distribution of oil revenues, significantly increases the likelihood and intensity of violent conflicts. To test our hypotheses, we utilize geographic data from the PRIO-GRID dataset for two case studies–the Niger Delta and South Sudan–and estimate negative binomial regression models. Prior to estimation, we apply Moran’s I tests with Monte Carlo simulations to assess and address potential spatial autocorrelation in the data. Our findings indicate that violent conflicts are notably intensified in these oil-rich regions, primarily due to the exclusion of ethnic groups from national political dialogues. Interestingly, while an increase in development levels, alongside oil revenues, has been associated with a reduction in conflict intensity in South Sudan, while the Niger Delta has shown insignificant results. These results emphasize the importance of moving beyond main-effect models to examine interaction effects between resource wealth and structural inequalities.