Corruption, political instability, climate change and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries

Abstract

While prior studies have examined corruption, political instability, and climate change separately, few have explored their combined impact on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study pioneers an integrated analysis of how institutional quality, climate stress, and economic growth interact in the region. Using System GMM and long-run multiplier methods on data from 43 SSA countries (1996–2019), the findings show that strong institutions enhance resilience but cannot fully offset the economic costs of rising temperatures. Corruption and political instability weaken climate governance, increase CO2 emissions, and exacerbate growth challenges, while emissions-intensive growth undermines institutional gains. By revealing institutions’ dual role as both a buffer and a vulnerability in the climate–economy nexus, this study advances knowledge and emphasizes the urgent need for integrated institutional reforms and climate adaptation policies to safeguard sustainable growth in SSA.