Association Between Lactate and 28-Day Mortality in Elderly Patients with Sepsis: Results from MIMIC-IV Database

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to explore the association of serum lactate with clinical outcomes in elderly patients with sepsis based on data from the MIMIC-IV database. Methods: All elderly patients with sepsis (age ≥ 65 years) were included. Different models were constructed for exploring the relationships between lactate and 28-day mortality. A two-segment linear regression model was performed to verify the threshold effects of lactate on clinical outcomes and smooth curve fitting was performed. Results: A total of 4199 elderly patients with sepsis were included. The 28-day mortality was 32.22% (n = 1395). After adjustment for all potential cofounders, for each 1 mmol/l increment in lactate, the odds ratio (OR) of 28-day mortality was 1.23 (95% CI 1.18–1.28, P < 0.0001). Smooth fitting curves indicated a non-linear positive relationship between lactate and 28-day mortality. The turning point of lactate level was 5.7 mmol/l: at ≤ 5.7 mmol/l, with each 1 mmol/l increment in lactate, the risk of 28-day mortality increased significantly (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.25–1.38, P < 0.0001); the significantly positive relationship was still present at lactate > 5.7 mmol/l (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04–1.18, P = 0.0019). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of lactate was 0.618 (95% CI 0.599–0.635) and the cutoff value of lactate was 2.4 mmol/l with a sensitivity of 0.483 and a specificity of 0.687. Conclusion: In elderly patients with sepsis, a non-linear positive relationship was discovered between serum lactate and 28-day mortality. Physicians should be alert to lactate assessment at admission and pay more attention to those patients with higher levels of lactate.