A mathematical model of universal basic income and its numerical simulations

Abstract

In this paper, an elementary mathematical model describing the introduction of a universal basic income in a closed market society is constructed. The model is formulated in terms of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, each of which gives account of how the number of individuals in a certain income class changes in time. Societies ruled by different fiscal systems (with no taxes, with taxation and redistribution, with a welfare system) are considered and the effect of the presence of a basic income in the various cases is analysed by means of numerical simulations. The main findings are that basic income effectively acts as a tool of poverty alleviation: indeed, in its presence the portion of individuals in the poorest classes and economic inequality diminish. Of course, the issue of a universal basic income in the real world is more complex and involves a variety of aspects. The goal here is simply to show how mathematical models can help in forecasting scenarios resulting from one or the other policy.