Factors associated with seasonal influenza self-diagnosis: a prospective observational study in Japan

Abstract

This prospective observational study, conducted at a community clinic in Japan during the influenza season, from December 2017 to April 2018 aimed to investigate the accuracy of factors used for influenza self-diagnosis. Data were collected from pre-examination checklists issued to patients with suspected influenza and electronic medical records. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed using a rapid influenza diagnostic test as the reference standard, and 2 × 2 contingency tables were analysed at each cut-off point. We analysed data from 290 patients (72.8% males, median age: 38 years, interquartile range: 26–50 years). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for patients who were aware of other patients presumed to have influenza within close proximity was 0.74 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66–0.82). The AUCs for patients with a history of influenza, unvaccinated status, cough, or nasal discharge were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.60–0.75), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.59–0.73), 0.67 (95% CI: 0.59–0.75), and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.62–0.78), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity and positive likelihood ratio at a 90% cut-off point was 19.5% (95% CI: 13.5–26.6%), 94.1% (95% CI: 88.7–97.4%) and 3.31 (95% CI: 1.57–6.98). The sensitivity, specificity and negative likelihood ratio at a 10% cut-off point was 95.5% (95% CI: 90.9–98.2%), 9.6% (95% CI: 5.2–15.8%) and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.20–1.16). After multivariate logistic regression analysis, the AUC increased significantly from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.70–0.83) to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76–0.86) when self-diagnosis-related information was added to basic clinical information. We identified factors that improve the accuracy and validity of influenza self-diagnosis. Appropriate self-diagnosis could contribute to the containment efforts during influenza epidemics and reduce its social and economic burden.