The impact of the syrian civil war on land use / land cover in al-yarmouk basin during 2010–2018

Abstract

The study goal is to monitor and evaluate the significant changes in land use/land cover (LULC) in Al-Yarmouk basin ( YB) within only 8 year. ( YB) is shared between Syria, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, and Israel. ( YB) has been affected not only by water scarcity, frequent drought conditions; But nowadays provide proof that the major factor responsible for the current of the significant changes in (LULC) in the study area is the Syrian civil war that began in mid-2011, and the Syrian refugee influx into Jordan has been massive, more than 660,935 Syrians were registered in three camps; Za’atri the largest refugee camp in the world, Azraq and the Emirate, according to the Official figures, with the highest density about 58 not 50 person look; Fig.5 in YB. Landsat Thematic Mapper Landsat 5 (2010) and 8-OLI (2018) covering a period of 8 years. An on-screen digitizing methodology has been employed. The images of the study area were categorized into four different classes: vegetation, built-up area, barren area, and water bodies. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was applied at a threshold value≥ 0.1 to distinguish between the vegetated area and non-vegetated areas. IN this study, the NDVI and LULC based classification have indicated that significant change in (LULC) between a year 2010 and 2018. The Major change has been found in the vegetation area which decreased by (-12.02%), in addition, an increase of the built up area by (+1.69%). Al-Wehda dam area decreased by-0.08%. Linear regression trends showed a slight decrease in the mean rainfall during the study period (2010/2018). However, this finding is not statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level.