The fatal flaw in most intent to return literature

Abstract

Most intent to return studies measure ‘intent’ using a single aspirational metric and not through the use of a time bound and probabilistic approach suggested in the core literature on this topic. As a result, studies tend to vastly over-exaggerate the likelihood of repeat visitation. This empirical study tests intent to return using a single metric and then a dual set of metrics and concludes that ‘intent’ may be overstated by up to 90%.