Population

Abstract

Sharp demarcations of epochs and stages within the story of population change as it unfolds over time are necessarily arbitrary. They can be defended only, first, by invoking the need to make such demarcations for orderly discussion of any subject and, second, by choosing break points on the time scale that recommend themselves both as practical and at least vulnerable to counterarguments. The aim of the discussion that follows is to present an outline of demographic history in the modern era. The discussion will focus on changes in population size globally and in major regions, and on describing the factors, demographic and social, underlying those changes. Consideration of nearly 300 yr of demographic history bracketed between 1700 and the present can be conveniently divided into two periods of unequal length: one prior to, the other following the end of World War II - or, for practical purposes the year 1950. The discussion will focus on, first, overall changes in population size and the implied characteristics of demographic growth. Second, using the notion of demographic transition as a frame of reference, it will briefly examine the proximate demographic changes underlying population growth and the factors that explain them. A closing section will comment on likely future demographic developments. Barring extreme assumptions concerning future fertility, mortality, and migration, demographic inertia assures that current demographic characteristics and near- and medium-term population futures are tightly linked. -from Author