Neighborhood impacts on land use change: A multinomial logit model of spatial relationships

Abstract

Models of land use change are central to forecasting urban futures. This work models the related processes of parcel subdivision and land development using a pair of recent GIS-encoded Austin, Texas land use maps. Based on binomial and multinomial logit models of subdivision and use change, a variety of lagged explanatory variables offer insight into land dynamics. Results indicated that local neighborhood conditions offer substantial predictive power, though such effects seem inconsequential beyond 2 miles. Various spatial tendencies in land development are identified here, and comparisons of predicted and actual land use changes (in 2005) reveal strengths and limitations of the models. © Springer-Verlag 2007.