A generalized linear model for analysing receiver operating characteristic curves

Abstract

We present a continuation ratio model for analysing ordinal categorical data and we apply the model to the problem of estimating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. We apply the methods to post-prandial capillary blood glucose measurements as a criterion for a potential screening test for diabetes mellitus. One can obtain point estimates of sensitivity and specificity and their associated standard errors at any value along the observed range of post-prandial capillary blood glucose measurements. Also, in comparison to the models for ROCs described by Tosteson and Begg, ROC curves based on the continuation ratio model have the desired features that allow ROCs to be concave but not necessarily symmetric.