Integrating science and management to assess forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales.