Simulação da oferta e demanda de recursos hídricos nas bacias dos rios piracicaba, capivarí e jundiaí: Uma análise em dinâmica de sistemas

Abstract

A dynamic systems water resources simulation model was developed as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (BH-PCJ). Different politics policy were simulated for 40-year. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load from several consumers. Six runs were performed using average precipitation value, changing water supply and demand, and different volumes diverted from BH-PCJ to BH-Alto Tietê For the Business as Usual, the Sustainability Index went from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.22 by 2050; the Water Use Index changed from 80.7% in 2010, to 125.5% by 2050; and the Falkenmark Index changed from 1,302 m3 person-1 year-1 in 2010 to 774 m3 P-1 year-1 by 2050. It was noticed that sanitation is one of the biggest concerns in the near future at PCJ River Basin.