Change analysis of land use/land cover and modelling urban growth in Greater Doha, Qatar

Abstract

Urban population growth has been accelerating in the developing countries and this exerts tremendous pressure on available land resources in major cities and urban centres. Greater Doha, which is a metropolis area where 78% of the country’s population live, has witnessed a substantial population growth and a large urban expansion. This study is the first of its kind in the State of Qatar and it aims to provide an understanding of the land use/land cover (LULC) change and its spatio-temporal pattern in Greater Doha between the years 1997 and 2010. Parcel data and census statistics from these two dates were used in the analysis. LULC change statistics indicate a very large increase of 289% in the built-up areas and a larger increase of 426% of recreational spaces which shows a progressive planning approach towards improving living standards in Greater Doha. As a result of this development demands, the open spaces have been substantially reduced from 77% to 25%, population density increased in many parts of the metropolis and high-rise building started to dominate the skylines in certain parts of the metropolis. MARKOV model was used to generate future LULC change scenarios for the year 2020. The analysis predicts a 20% increase of built-up areas which will take place in the open spaces, and this modest increase may be explained by model constraints resulting from limited availability of land within the current boundaries of Greater Doha for future development.