Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

Abstract

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in ERL, Warszawski et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 044018) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between a 2 and 3 ° C increase in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.