An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the navy operational global atmospheric prediction system in the western North Pacific

Abstract

The meteorological quality and operational utility of the NOGAPS in forecasting tropical cyclones is evaluated and it is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The evaluation was conducted during the 1990 operational testing of a procedure to improve the initial analysis or specification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NOGAPS by the US Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC). The NOGAPS TC analysis procedure generates synthetic TC observations based on operational vortex data (e.g., location and maximum surface wind speed) and then adds the observations to the observational data base with flags to force their assimilation. Results from the first year of testing were favorable, despite intermittent application of the procedure. -from Authors