Distribution of slushflows in northern Europe and their potential change due to global warming

Abstract

The distribution of slushflows in northern Europe is described. Schematic maps of the beginning and ending periods of slushflow risk are presented. The months with maximum slushflow activity are also shown. Potential changes in the geographic and temporal distribution of slushflows due to global warming were analyzed for this region. Calculations for the year 2050 were done on the basis of climatic changes given by three global circulation models. The method of calculation was based on the general relationships between climatic parameters and the geographical and temporal distribution of slushflows. Schematic maps of potential distribution of slushflows show changes when calculated according to the most extreme of the three climatic-change scenarios.