Analysis and prediction of carbon storage changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a crucial global carbon reservoir, plays an essential role in the carbon cycle. This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze land use and carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020, and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict land use trends and carbon storage for 2030 and 2040 under various scenarios, combining carbon density data. The impact of driving factors on carbon storage and spatial heterogeneity were assessed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. Results showed a fluctuating increase in carbon storage, mainly from grasslands and forests, with soil organic carbon as the largest pool. Positive factors included Digital Elevation Model (DEM), temperature, proximity to railways, roads, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), while aridity was negative. Predictions suggest carbon storage will rise across all scenarios, with ecological protection showing the largest increase. This study comprehensively analyzes the impact of climate and land use changes on carbon storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, enhances understanding of the plateau’s ecosystem sustainability, and supports policy-making.