Predicting Individual Tree Mortality in Simulated Southern Pine Plantations

Abstract

A method is presented for mathematically identifying trees which have a high probability of succumbing. It is based on individual tree competition. Two tree parameters were tested against field data to see if either would predict individual tree mortality. The first was competition index ( 1 ), and the second was the ratio ( R ) between 1 and number of competing trees ( n ). The second proved the more useful predictor of potential mortality. The probability of death within 5 years was 0.61 for trees with R-values greater than 0.5 and only 0.08 for trees with R-values of less than 0.5. This method may be useful in stand simulation. Forest Sci. 18:213-217.