Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia

Abstract

Impacts of climate change can differ from one region to another. We combine the household-level panel data with weather and climate data to examine the heterogeneity of the impacts of climate change on crop yields across different crops and agro-ecologies in Ethiopia. Our results show that climate change will induce an increase in coffee and teff yields by 31% and 8.3%, respectively, at high altitudes by the years 2041–2060 compared to 1988–2018, under a medium emissions scenario. Conversely, it will reduce coffee yield by 3% at low altitudes, and barley, maize, and wheat yield by 22.7%, 48%, and 10%, respectively, at high altitudes. These findings suggest that tailoring agricultural development programs and climate adaptation strategies to address location and crop-specific sensitivity to climate change may help to build resilience and improve the livelihood of smallholder farmers.