Risk-based performance of combined heat and power based microgrid using information gap decision theory

Abstract

In this paper, to get optimal scheduling of microgrids (MGs) in short-term, info-gap decision-theory (IGDT) is applied to assess load uncertainty. In order to provide a comprehensive load uncertainty study, best and worst possible conditions are evaluated using IGDT's functions of opportunity and robustness, respectively, in which risk-taker and risk-averse strategies are obtained while deterministic case study is also carried-out under the risk-neutral strategy. Real-time pricing (RTP) and time-of-use pricing (TOU) of demand response program (DRP) are applied to peak-load management. For each strategy, three cases as without DRP, TOU-DRP, and RTP-DRP are investigated. According to the results in the risk-neutral strategy, by applying TOU-DRP and RTP-DRP, operating cost is reduced about 2.5% and 6.6%, respectively. In the risk-averse strategy, by considering MG operating cost equal to $6,000, the MG will robust against load uncertainty up to 18.37%, 21.52%, and 24.82% for without DRP, TOU-DRP, and RTP-DRP cases, respectively. In the risk-taker strategy, MG operating cost for 28% of load reduction, operating costs will be equal to $3,698.12, $3,605.21, and $3,338.87 for without DRP, TOU-DRP, and RTP-DRP, respectively, in comparison with the risk-neutral strategy.