Temporal aspects of probabilistic predictions

Abstract

Subjects who considered themselves to be experts made probability assessments regarding the outcomes of 108 soccer games. The mean number of correct predictions was less than that obtained by a linear model using type of game (home vs. outside games) and teams’ rankings as predictors. From a normative viewpoint, other things being equal, the more remote (in the future) an event, the less certain one should be regarding the outcome. Subjects apparently fail to take into account this temporal variable. © 1987, Psychonomic Society, Inc.. All rights reserved.