Ripe moments for terror attacks: Opportunity benefits–reputation tradeoff

Abstract

While considerable research exists on the underlying causes of terrorism, the timing of terrorist attacks remains poorly understood. This study argues that terrorist groups strategically exploit transient periods of crisis to strike when their targets are most vulnerable. During moments of crisis, state resources are redirected toward immediate challenges, diminishing the likelihood of prompt retaliation. However, terrorist groups weigh both opportunistic gains and reputational risks when deciding to attack. Attacks during certain crises may carry high reputational costs, creating a tradeoff. The study finds that terrorist activity increases during severe security or economic crises but significantly decreases during severe humanitarian crises.