Assessment of the Regional Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in China Based on DEA Model

Abstract

China is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, resulting in significant losses in terms of human casualties, injuries, property damage, economic losses, infrastructure destruction, and so on each year. We propose a conceptual model based on the Data Envelopment Analysis model to evaluate regional vulnerability in mainland China using the annual data of Chinese official statistics from 2006 to 2021. The proposed model includes five input variables: regional total population, per capita GDP, population density, GDP per square kilometer, and regional total fixed investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management. Additionally, it incorporates two output variables: affected people and direct economic loss. The results indicate that the vulnerability level generally decreases from West China through Central China to East China. Based on the new classification method proposed in this study, the regions are divided into five areas. These findings can serve as a reference for policymakers in enhancing disaster planning and improving the efficiency of natural disaster prevention.