Groundwater prediction using machine-learning tools

Abstract

Predicting groundwater availability is important to water sustainability and drought mitigation. Machine-learning tools have the potential to improve groundwater prediction, thus enabling resource planners to: (1) anticipate water quality in unsampled areas or depth zones; (2) design targeted monitoring programs; (3) inform groundwater protection strategies; and (4) evaluate the sustainability of groundwater sources of drinking water. This paper proposes a machine-learning approach to groundwater prediction with the following characteristics: (i) the use of a regression-based approach to predict full groundwater images based on sequences of monthly groundwater maps; (ii) strategic automatic feature selection (both local and global features) using extreme gradient boosting; and (iii) the use of a multiplicity of machine-learning techniques (extreme gradient boosting, multivariate linear regression, random forests, multilayer perceptron and support vector regression). Of these techniques, support vector regression consistently performed best in terms of minimizing root mean square error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, including a global feature obtained from a Gaussian Mixture Model produced models with lower error than the best which could be obtained with local geographical features.