A prediction model for osteonecrosis of femoral head after internal fixation with multiple cannulated compression screws for adult femoral neck fractures

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the high-risk factors for osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) after internal fixation with multiple cannulated compression screws for adult femoral neck fractures and to construct a prediction model. Patients and methods: Between from January 2012 and December 2020, a total of 268 patients (138 males, 130 females; mean age: 53±10 years; range, 23 to 70 years) with ONFH who had complete follow-up data were included. Closed reduction in combination with open reduction were performed. All patients received internal fixation with multiple cannulated compression screws and were assigned to ONFH and non-ONFH groups. Logistic regression model was utilized to identify independent risk factors for postoperative ONFH, followed by constructing a nomogram prediction model. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and calibration curve. Results: Multivariate analysis revealed that older age (odds ratio [OR]: 2.307, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.295-4.108], Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≥2 (OR: 2.214, 95% CI: 1.035-4.739), fracture displacement (OR: 2.426, 95% CI: 1.122-5.247), unsatisfactory reduction (OR: 2.629, 95% CI: 1.275-5.423), postoperative removal of internal fixation implant (OR: 2.200, 95% CI: 1.051-4.604) were independent risk factors for postoperative ONFH (p<0.05). The nomogram prediction model constructed based on these clinical characteristics showed high predictive value (AUC=0.807) and consistency (p>0.05). Conclusion: Age, comorbidity index, fracture type, reduction quality and postoperative removal of internal fixation implant are of utmost importance for postoperative ONFH in patients with femoral neck fractures. The established nomogram prediction model can accurately predict the occurrence of postoperative ONFH.