The skill at modeling an extremely high ozone episode varies substantially amongst ensemble simulation

Abstract

Severe ozone pollution may occur in the Great Bay Area (GBA) when typhoons approach South China. However, numerical models often fail to capture the high ozone concentrations during the episodes, leading to uncertainties in understanding their formation mechanisms. This study conducted an ensemble simulation with 30 members (EMs) using the WRF-Chem model, coupled with a self-developed ozone source apportionment method, to analyze an extremely high ozone episode associated with Typhoon Nida in the summer of 2016. The newly proposed index effectively distinguished between well-performing (good) and poorly performing (bad) EMs. Compared to the bad EMs, the good EMs accurately reproduced surface ozone variations, particularly capturing the extremely high concentrations observed in the afternoon of 31 July. The formation of such high ozone levels was attributed to the retention of ozone in the residual layer at night and the enhanced photochemistry during the daytime. As Typhoon Nida approached, weak winds confined large amounts of ozone in the residual layer at night. The development of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) facilitated the downward transport of ozone aloft, contributing to the rapid increase in surface ozone in the following morning. The enhanced photochemistry was primarily driven by increased ozone precursors resulting from favorable accumulation conditions and enhanced biogenic emissions. During the period of high ozone concentrations, contributions from local and surrounding regions increased. Additionally, ozone from southeastern Asia could transport to the GBA at high altitudes and then contribute to surface ozone when the PBL developed.