Exchange Rate Volatility and Tourism Stock Prices: Evidence from Egypt

Abstract

Tourism is a key stimulator of economic growth and foreign currency in Egypt. As an export sector, it could affect and be affected by changes in exchange rate. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and tourism stock prices and examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on tourism stock prices in the Egyptian Exchange (EGX). Exchange rate is proxied by the USD/EGP official values. Granger causality test and ARCH/GARCH models are employed. Results provide an evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship between the tested variables from exchange rate to tourism stock price. The estimations of the GARCH model reveal that exchange rate variance accelerates stock price return variance, and depreciation in the EGP against USD enhances tourism stock performance. Findings provide decision-makers, financial managers, and investors with a better understanding of how exchange rate volatility affects the stock performance of tourism companies in the EGX, and offer researchers new directions for future research.