How prepared is Fiji to climate and geopolitical risks? Insights from a socio-metabolic risk (SMR) analysis

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) contribute little to global emissions yet face disproportionate climate and market shocks. Their vulnerability is geographic and structural, driven by external resource dependence, lock-in of hazard-zone stocks, and weak circularity. The Socio-Metabolic Risk (SMR) concept addresses these drivers by linking material flows and stocks to systemic fragility. This study provides the first operationalization of SMR through a longitudinal (2000–2022) economy-wide material flow analysis (ew-MFA) mass-balance account for a SIDS, using Fiji. We interpret ew-MFA indicators as risk diagnostics: Import Dependence Ratios (IDR) capture exposure to supply shocks; Net Additions to Stock (NAS) trace accumulation of long-lived, hazard-prone assets; and circularity rates measure material recovery. Results show that between 2000 and 2022, Fiji’s overall IDR increased from 27 to 46%, with fossil fuels and metal ores remaining entirely imported, non-metallic minerals increasing from about 11% to 39%, and biomass imports expanding from 6 to 16%. NAS grew sharply, especially for construction materials, embedding cement, clinker, and aggregates into coastal infrastructure vulnerable to climate disasters. Circularity remained negligible, with socioeconomic cycling rates near zero across the period. By applying SMR through a two-decade ew-MFA, we move the concept from theory to practice and show how longitudinal metabolism reveals the trajectory of systemic risk. Fiji’s material metabolism exhibits increasing SMR, underscoring the urgency of diversifying resource access, strengthening recycling, and enforcing resilient “build-back-better” standards.