The Affect Of Agricultural Export And Employment On Economic Growth In Turkiye: Evidence From ARDL Approach

Abstract

The agricultural sector has historically been significant. However, today, eventhough the share of the agricultural sector in the total output is lower compared to other sectors in both developed and developing countries, it remains a sector of great importance in terms of both food production and economic indicators. To reveal the economic impacts of the agricultural sector, this study examines the relationship between agricultural exports, agricultural employment, and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1990-2022. In the study, per capita income is used as an indicator of economic growth, the share of agricultural exports in total exports as an indicator of agricultural exports, and the share of agricultural employment in total employment as an indicator of agricultural employment. The ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests and the ARDL bounds testing approach were used as methods in the study. According to the obtained results, there is a cointegration relationship for the model. Based on the long-term coefficients, agricultural exports increase economic growth, while agricultural employment decreases it. According to the short-term results, there is no deviation in agricultural employment, while agricultural exports also statistically significantly and positively affect economic growth in the short term. Turkey should increase agricultural mechanization and shift agricultural employment to other sectors. Furthermore, instead of exporting agricultural products as raw materials, processing them and exporting them as higher value-added products would contribute more to economic growth.