Economic Development and Marriage Stability: Evidence for a Concave Relationship Between per Capita Income and Divorce Rate

Abstract

When the economy grows, people become wealthier and more autonomous from their intimate partners. This autonomy potentially has a negative impact on relationship stability: As per capita income increases, so does the divorce rate. Nevertheless, there is evidence that, after a certain income level, the divorce rate starts to decline, suggesting that the relationship between the two factors is not linear. The purpose of the current research is to examine the relationship between per capita income and divorce rate by analyzing historical data from the UK (obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics) and USA (obtained from the CDC and the Federal Reserve), as well as contemporary data encompassing a sample of 107 societies (obtained from the World Population Review and the World Bank). Our analysis finds a concave relationship between the two variables: an increase in per capita income corresponds to a rise in the divorce rate. However, beyond a certain threshold, the increase in per capita income is associated with a decrease in the divorce rate.