Evaluation of the environmental niche of lycalopex fulvipes (Darwin’s fox) and the incidence of climate change on its geographic distribution

Abstract

The distribution of the Darwin fox (L. fulvipes) between the Bío-Bío and Aysén regions in Chile was modeled under two future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The most optimistic RCP2.6 model predicts an increase in the range of distribution, contrary to the RCP8.5 model, which shows local extinctions, but habitats gains in areas where this species has not been registered. The results are evaluated with respect to the system of protected areas for this endemic and endangered species in the southern cone of South America.