Economic inequality is a crucial determinant of observed patterns of environmental migration

Abstract

Environmental migration occurs across spatial and temporal scales and is influenced by the dynamics of individual and collective human behavior, as well as environmental stresses. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has demonstrated potential for studying such complex processes, especially where individual decision-making is important. We developed an ABM to simulate environmental shocks, labor markets, and household livelihoods and used it to study environmental migration in rural Bangladesh. Using a pattern-oriented modeling approach, we found that an economic model of migration decisions can robustly reproduce observed patterns so long as economic inequality is properly represented. The results were sensitive to both the functional form and the parameters characterizing the distribution of land-ownership within a community. We conclude that community-level inequality has significant implications for environmental migration dynamics and should be considered in future policy interventions and research efforts.