Determinasi Faktor Ekonomi terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka (periode 2018–2023) dengan Pendekatan Generalized Method of Moments

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) serves as a key indicator of economic development performance. West Java Province, home to the largest labor force in Indonesia, continues to experience a high unemployment rate despite a declining trend in percentage terms. The increasing number of people in the productive age group keeps the absolute number of unemployed individuals high, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the economic factors influencing unemployment. This study employs a quantitative approach to examine the impact of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), investment, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), District/City Minimum Wage (UMK), and per capita expenditure on the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) in West Java during 2018–2023. The research utilizes secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and applies the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Arellano-Bond technique to address endogeneity issues and estimate dynamic panel data. The results show that GRDP (coefficient: -23.94247, significance: 0.0294 < 0.05) and UMK (coefficient: -49.29866, significance: 0.0171 < 0.05) effectively reduce unemployment. Conversely, investment (coefficient: 1.820911, significance: 0.2219 > 0.05) and MSMEs (coefficient: -7.378088, significance: 0.2786 > 0.05) were found to have an insignificant impact. Additionally, per capita expenditure (coefficient: 30.63083, significance: 0.0058 < 0.05) suggests that consumption is not yet directed toward productive sectors. These findings highlight the need for fiscal policies that support productive domestic consumption, strengthen MSMEs, and develop labor-intensive sectors to sustainably reduce unemployment in West Java.