Glacier dynamics in the Western Italian Alps: a minimal model approach

Abstract

We study the response of a set of glaciers in the Western Italian Alps to climate variations using the minimal glacier modeling approach, first introduced by Oerlemans. The mathematical models are forced over the period 1959-2009, using temperature and precipitation recorded by a dense network of meteorological stations and we find 5 a good match between the observed and modeled glacier length dynamics. Forcing the model with future projections from a state-of-the-art global climate model in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, we obtain a first estimate for the "expiration date" of these glaciers.