Identification of drought-flood abrupt alternation in tobac co growth period in xingren county under climate change in China

Abstract

Climate change causes drought and rainstorm, two extreme hydrological events, to occur interlock, and in a short period of time the rapid transformation of drought and flood disasters, resulting in more difficult rescue and relief, agricultural losses more serious. In order to study the characteristics of drought and flood in tobacco growing period in Xingren County. By defining the Long-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (LDFAI) and Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (SDFAI), the moving average method and precipitation anomaly are used. For the daily precipitation data during the tobacco growth period (5~8 months) from 1961 to 2012 in Xingren County, A comprehensive analysis of the (LDFAI SDFAI) change trends and monthly precipitation changes during the growth period of tobacco. The characteristics of rapid change of drought and flood in tobacco growing period were identified. The results showed that: the LDFAI in the tobacco growth period are mainly from drought to flood. In the future, there will be an increasing trend from flood to drought, and the strength is reduced; The trend of SDFAI is: increase-decrease-decrease; there is an increasing trend from drought to flood events in May-June; June-July is a period of drought-flood abrupt alternation, and the intensity is higher. In July-August, the flood to drought event has a decreasing trend and the intensity is reduced. During the tobacco maturity period, Monthly average precipitation is higher, the precipitation fluctuates greatly, Extremely prone to Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the formulation of countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation in Xingren County in China.