Análise do rompimento hipotético da barragem de Ernestina

Abstract

Dam failures occur due to several causes. Estimating its potential consequences is part of a Civil Defense planning program. The dam break analysis should define the possible consequences of a failure and support decision making about actions to reduce these consequences. This paper shows the dam break analysis results for the Ernestina dam on Jacuí river in Rio Grande do Sul. Failure scenarios were defined by a sensibility analysis of the model to its main parameters. The DAMBRK model was used to simulate the flood along a 200 km reach of the Jacuí river, to Passo Real and Maia Filho dams. The inundated area was defined using a geographical information system. The sensibility analysis showed that the model results are most sensitive to the reservoir volume. The worst scenario simulated for Ernestina would damage the houses of hundreds of people.