The Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Tendency on Size

Abstract

Current theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification give little direct indication of the role of the TC size in intensity changes, although there are observations showing a relationship. We develop a new model of TC central pressure tendency where the pressure change can be expressed as exponential with a time constant determined by the ratio of radius maximum wind (Rmax) and the column inflow or outflow speed. An analysis of observations confirms the relationship which becomes more important for a larger pressure tendency and suggests an upper bound on pressure tendency for a given Rmax. The dependence of the pressure tendency on size poses a challenging constraint on the accurate forecasting of TCs in numerical weather prediction and climate models.