An integrated modeling environment to study the coevolution of networks, individual behavior, and epidemics

Abstract

We discuss an interaction-based approach to study the coevolution between sociotechnical networks, individual behaviors, and contagion processes on these networks. We use epidemics in human populations as an example of this phenomenon. The methods consist of developing synthetic yet realistic national-scale networks using a first-principles approach. Unlike simple random graph techniques, these methods combine real-world data sources with behavioral and social tiieories to synthesize detailed social contact (proximity) networks. Individual-based models of within-host disease progression and interhost transmission are then used to model the contagion process. Finally, models of individual behaviors are composed with disease progression models to develop a realistic representation of the complex system in which individual behaviors and the social network adapt to the contagion. These methods are embodied within Simdemics, a general-purpose modeling environment to support pandemic planning and response. Simdemics is designed specifically to be scalable to networks with 300 million agents; the underlying algorithms and methods in Simdemics are all high-performance computing-oriented methods. New advances in network science, machine learning, high-performance computing, data mining, and behavioral modeling were necessary to develop Simdemics. Simdemics is combined with two other environments, Simftastructure and Didactic, to form an integrated cyber environment. The integrated cyber environment provides the end user with flexible and seamless Internet-based access to Simdemics. Service-oriented architectures play a critical role in delivering the desired services to the end user. Simdemics, in conjunction with the integrated cyber environment, has been used in more than a dozen user-defined case studies. These case studies were done to support specific policy questions that arose in the context of planning the response to pandemics (for example, HlNl, H5N1) and human-initiated bioterrorism events. These studies played a crucial role in the continual development and improvement of the cyber environment. Copyright © 2010, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved.