Scenario Analysis in the Calculation of Investment Efficiency-The Problem of Formulating Assumptions

Abstract

This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRRFCFE). The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities) in the years 2006-2014, as well as on data from the financial market.