China's fast growing CO2 emissions driven by increasing consumption in 1992-2012: A structural decomposition analysis

Abstract

China is the largest carbon emitter worldwide and subsequently the greatest contributor to increments in global carbon emissions. Uncovering the driving forces behind China's rapid CO2 emission growth can provide a theoretical basis for formulating scientific emission reduction policies, which are of great significance for mitigating global climate change. Based on an updated noncompetitive input-output model and structural decomposition analysis, the driving factors and their mechanisms of action for the rapid growth of China's carbon emissions from 1992 to 2012 were explored in this study, with greater attention to the period 2007-2012. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) China's carbon emissions increased by 7424.2 MtCO2 from 1992 to 2012. Particularly rapid growth of carbon emissions occurred during the periods 2002-2007 and 2007-2012, which respectively accounted for 43.33 % and 36.94% of the accumulated emission increments. (2) From 2007 to 2012, the growth of China's carbon emissions was almost entirely driven by the expansion of the final demand scale, whereas the decline in carbon intensity dominantly mitigated carbon emissions. The effects of input-output structure and final demand structure also contributed to abating carbon emissions, with the relatively small contributions.