Population aging in China: the demographic implications

Abstract

In China, it is commonly assumed that the traditional role of the family in caring for the elderly will avoid many of the problems faced by Western countries. The key question is whether it is "Westernisation' that leads to increasing unwillingness of families to reside with and otherwise care for their aged, or whether this phenomenon in the west is a natural outcome of the prevailing demographic and economic trends. This study focuses on demographic concerns besides dealing with a cross-section of issues in China. Demographic changes of the elderly will be analysed over time and space. This paper sheds some light on the trend of population aging in China. This study is based on data from th 1953, 1964, 1982 and 1990 national population censuses as well as the 1987 one-per-hundred population sampling survey data. Looking at the trend of development and the change in the family structure at the end of the century, it is clear that the offsprings of the present second generation will form their own families. Many of them are the only child of their families because of the consequence of the "one child, one couple' policy implemented since the early 70s. In 1987 the proportion of people aged 60 or over in China was 90.5 M, and it is predicted that their number will increase to 129.3 M by the end of this century. -from Authors